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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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