Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
