🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Profited $436,000 on Bets on Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January rose in the period preceding former President Trump stated on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform in December and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the Friday before the event. However the market's assessment had jumped to over 10% by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from sports to politics. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry. A company executive for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."